Expect the unexpected when adapting to climate change in Africa, says leading researcher

Professor Sir Gordon Conway publishes paper on climate change in Africa<em> - News release</em>

Imperial College London news release

For immediate release
Wednesday 28 October 2009

Nations, communities and families in Africa need to safeguard their homes and livelihoods against the unpredictable effects of climate change, according to a discussion paper written by Imperial College London's Professor Sir Gordon Conway, published today (28 October).

The paper describes how predicting climate change's impact on specific countries, regions or towns in Africa is extremely difficult. Africa's climate is driven by three very complex factors – the cycle of hot air and rain in the tropics, the monsoons and the El-Niño/ La Niña phenomena in the Pacific ocean. This makes it hard to forecast what will happen, when and where.

Climate change could cause more frequent and severe floods, droughts and other extreme weather events; decreased access to drinking water; damage to agricultural land and crops; and the spread of diseases like malaria into previously unaffected areas – all of which could have serious consequences for the poorest members of society.

Professor Conway says that one way to adapt to climate change in Africa is to introduce drought- and flood-resistant crops

The uncertainty about where these effects will be felt in Africa presents a unique set of challenges, as Sir Gordon explains:

"Essentially it means having to prepare for the unknown," he said. "This might sound impossible but it's not – the key is helping people develop more resilient lifestyles and livelihoods, so that unknown and unpredictable 'shocks' and extreme weather events are not so damaging."

Sir Gordon is calling for governments, NGOs and the private sector to work together to increase communities' resilience to extreme weather events associated with climate change:

"For example, individual countries can build flood defences and set up weather insurance schemes. Communities can build cyclone shelters and introduce drought- and flood-resistant crops. Families can make sure they have more than one source of income – in rural areas this could involve women selling fruit and vegetables from home gardens, or weaving and selling handcrafts, to supplement the household income if agriculture fails," he said.

In addition, he says more research is needed to better understand the complexities of Africa's climate drivers.

"There is much that is known but also many unknowns," he concludes. "We need more scientific understanding and we need better, more detailed weather data from Africa."

Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, Director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London, adds:

"At present we are uncertain over the regional impacts of climate change, and we must gain more confidence in our predictions based on better understanding of how climate works. However it seems that Africa may be particularly badly hit: we urgently need to find ways of ensuring that communities can cope with the possible changes."

A full copy of the discussion paper, entitled: 'The science of climate change in Africa: impacts and adaptation' can be downloaded here.

All images courtesy of Jessie Luna.

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Notes to Editors:

1. About the Grantham Institute for Climate Change

The Grantham Institute for Climate Change is committed to driving climate change related research and translating it into real world impact. Established in February 2007 with a £12.8 million donation over ten years from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, the Institute's researchers are developing both the fundamental scientific understanding of climate change, and the mitigation and adaptation responses to it. The Institute intends that this work should be directly relevant to policy and decision makers. The Grantham Institute is unique among climate change research centres because it is situated at the heart of Imperial College London, one of the world's leading science, technology and medicine universities. The policy and outreach work that the Institute carries out is based on, and backed up by, the leading edge research of the College's academic staff.

Website: www.imperial.ac.uk/climatechange

2. About Imperial College London

Consistently rated amongst the world's best universities, Imperial College London is a science-based institution with a reputation for excellence in teaching and research that attracts 13,000 students and 6,000 staff of the highest international quality.

Innovative research at the College explores the interface between science, medicine, engineering and business, delivering practical solutions that improve quality of life and the environment - underpinned by a dynamic enterprise culture.

Since its foundation in 1907, Imperial's contributions to society have included the discovery of penicillin, the development of holography and the foundations of fibre optics. This commitment to the application of research for the benefit of all continues today, with current focuses including interdisciplinary collaborations to improve health in the UK and globally, tackle climate change and develop clean and sustainable sources of energy.

Website: www.imperial.ac.uk