Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases

An Interactive Short Course for Public Health Professionals, since 1990

In 2009 50 CME credits were awarded for this course

6-17 September 2010

Directed by Prof Christophe Fraser,  Dr Tim Hallett and Dr Tom Churcher
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London

Information | Presenters 1 | Presenters 2| Presenters 3 | Topics | Course Content | General information

Introduction

In recent years our understanding of infectious-disease epidemiology and control has been greatly increased through mathematical modelling. Insights from this increasingly-important, exciting field are now informing policy-making at the highest levels, and playing a growing role in research. The transmissible nature of infectious diseases makes them fundamentally different from non-infectious diseases, so techniques from 'classical' epidemiology are often invalid and hence lead to incorrect conclusions - not least in health-economic analysis.

Mathematical modelling now plays a key role in policy making, including health-economic aspects; emergency planning and risk assessment; control-programme evaluation; and monitoring of surveillance data. In research, it is essential in study design, analysis (including parameter estimation) and interpretation.

With infectious diseases frequently dominating news headlines, public health and pharmaceutical industry professionals, policy makers, and infectious disease researchers, increasingly need to understand the transmission patterns of infectious diseases, to be able to interpret and critically-evaluate both epidemiological data, and the findings of mathematical modelling studies. Recently there has been rapid progress in developing models and new techniques for measurement and analysis, which have been applied to outbreaks and emerging epidemics, such as Influenza A (H1N1) and SARS. A simple but powerful new technique for assessing the potential of different methods to control an infectious-disease outbreak was recently developed by course presenters.

Since 1990, this course has "demystified" mathematical modelling and kept public-health professionals, policy makers, and infectious disease researchers up-to-date with what they need to know about this fast-moving field, taught by individuals who are actively engaged in research and who advise leading public health professionals, policy-makers, governments, international organisations and pharmaceutical companies, both nationally and internationally, including on pandemic influenza, SARS, HIV, foot-and-mouth disease.

The Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London has been the world leader in mathematical modelling of the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases of humans and animals in both industrialised and developing countries for 20 years. It hosts the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, UNAIDS Epidemiology reference Group, Partnership for Child Development and and the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative that, to date, has treated over 40 million children for Neglected Tropical Diseases. This multi-disciplinary department has publishes frequently in Nature, Science, Lancet, PNAS, AIDS and other leading journals. It has developed models of Iinfluenza A (H1N1), avian influenza, SARS, HIV, TB, foot-and-mouth-disease, vector-borne diseases including malaria and flariasis, helminth infections, childhood vaccine-preventable infections, sexually-transmitted infections, drug-resistant bacterial infections and others.

Comments from previous participants

Past part icipants have included hospital clinicians, senior public health executives, health economists, veterinary researchers, biologists, and mathematicians; they have come from 48 countries, both developed and developing.

Course Aims

This course will enable you to:

Who Should Attend?

The course caters for:

• Policy-makers, public-health and disease-control professionals who need to
  (i) set appropriate goals for, and monitor performance of, infection-control programmes;
  (ii) interpret the findings of mathematical modelling studies; or
  (iii) question modelling experts effectively.
• All who need to apply modern methods of analysis in the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases, in medical, veterinary and conservation contexts.
• Health economists who need to develop appropriate models of infectious-disease control programmes.
• Researchers who need experience of using modern quantitative approaches to infectious disease epidemiology.
• Professionals planning for the control of a deliberately of accidentally released pathogen.
• Mathematicians who wish to learn key biological concepts and how they are translated into modelling. 

What mathematical ability is required?

Participants only need a very basic mathematical ability (high school level is more than sufficient): since most participants do not use maths regularly, if at all, we introduce concepts gently, step-by-step, and we offer the reassurance of an optional 'maths refresher' day.

Calculation is done using Excel and the user-friendly modelling package, Berkeley Madonna; hence manipulation of equations is not required. We emphasise how to express biological and clinical principles in a model and how to interpret results from a biological and clinical perspective.

Optional free maths refresher and Excel refresher days

In addition to the support that we offer throughout the course, we also offer optional free maths refresher  day on Sunday 5 September that some participants may wish to attend to refresh their memories. We shall also be running a free Excel and/or gain experience using Excel. refresher session on Sunday 12 September where delegates are introduced to the latest version of the programme and can learn techniques that will help them with the project work of week two.

Information | Presenters 1 | Presenters 2| Presenters 3 | Topics | Course Content | General information